Comparative analysis of Time Series Models to predict the seasonal prices of Ireland Dairy Products

Raut, Shital Namdeo (2022) Comparative analysis of Time Series Models to predict the seasonal prices of Ireland Dairy Products. Masters thesis, Dublin, National College of Ireland.

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Abstract

Seasonal patterns and food production patterns are however linked with each other and contribute to have a major impact on the economy of a country. This makes it an urgent need to forecast the production of food patterns that are reliant to climatic changes; further leading to customer satisfaction and industrial deliverability. Therefore, it becomes necessary to develop reliable forecasting methods to prevent shortage of dairy production in an industry. Hence, this thesis focuses to build a model that could accurately predict the price of dairy products in proportion to the climatic changes. Ireland is selected as the case study in the thesis and a combination of time series and machine learning models are adopted to forecast the price. A time series data related to dairy production from the year 1990 to 2021 is taken and is used as a data source for dairy products. The implemented work in the proposed thesis utilizes full dataset for training purpose and uses the price list of last 12 months for testing phase. These are further used as variables to evaluate product yields and losses. However, the implementation occurs on the fundamentals of time series and four ML algorithms, namely: ARIMA, ARIMA Garch, SEM and SARIMA. It was observed that the SARIMA model performed better in comparison to other models. Further, results were calculated based on evaluation matrix including root mean square error.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > Electronic computers. Computer science T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Electronic computers. Computer science H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > Specific Industries > Agriculture Industry H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > Business Logistics > Supply Chain Management
Divisions:	School of Computing > Master of Science in Data Analytics
Depositing User:	Tamara Malone
Date Deposited:	08 Mar 2023 17:38
Last Modified:	08 Mar 2023 17:38
URI:	https://norma.ncirl.ie/id/eprint/6282

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