EU External Trade Patterns and Financial Indicators Across Key Global Regions

Mohanakshan Geetha, Harigovindan (2025) EU External Trade Patterns and Financial Indicators Across Key Global Regions. Masters thesis, Dublin, National College of Ireland.

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Abstract

This research paper discusses the development of the external trade between the European Union and the four principal world regions of China, North America, South Asia, and Middle East Turkey between the years 2008 and 2024 and on the idea of using the regional stock market indices as the leading indicator of the subsequent trade flows. The approach is led by disruptions of the world, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, oil-price shocks, the realignment of geopolitical partnerships, and supply chains, and constant conflicts in Eastern Europe. This research also incorporates various heterogeneous data in a harmonised analysis tool. The analysis is supported by detailed trade records announced by UN Comtrade and Eurostat along with the financial market data, obtained with the help of Yahoo finance. It uses a time-series graphical presentation, comparative trade-structure analysis, correlation and Granger causality analysis to determine structural trends and predictive association. Results indicate that there are increasing trade deficits between the EU and China, continuing surpluses between the EU and North America, increasing but off-balanced trading between the EU and South Asia and fluctuating yet, strategically significant trading between the EU and Middle Eastern economies. At product level, machinery, transport equipment, chemicals and intermediate goods overwhelm the product in all regions. The results of Granger causality tests indicate that a number of regional stock indices, the Abu Dhabi DAX index (ADX) being the most predictive among them, the Hang Seng Index, and North American market indicators have statistically significant predictive capabilities of future trade flows at a given lag. The findings improve the knowledge base on how financial markets and real economic activity interact across time, providing valuable information with connotations amongst policy makers, investors and international trade strategists.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Supervisors:	Name Email Subhnil, Shubham UNSPECIFIED
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance Q Science > QA Mathematics > Electronic computers. Computer science T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Electronic computers. Computer science R Medicine > Diseases > Outbreaks of disease > Epidemics > COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020- H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > Business Logistics > Transportation of Goods and Trade Logistics
Divisions:	School of Computing > Master of Science in Data Analytics
Depositing User:	Ciara O'Brien
Date Deposited:	08 Sep 2026 10:50
Last Modified:	08 Sep 2026 10:50
URI:	https://norma.ncirl.ie/id/eprint/9888

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