The Relationship Between Weather Factors and Stock Exchange Trading Based in Istanbul

Karaburun, Mustafa (2024) The Relationship Between Weather Factors and Stock Exchange Trading Based in Istanbul. Masters thesis, Dublin, National College of Ireland.

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Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between weather conditions and the performance of the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). Istanbul offers a good case study due to its underrepresentation in finance literature, as most studies tend to focus on developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe. The study addresses gaps in prior research by focusing on an emerging market and incorporating multiple weather variables, such as temperatures, humidity, and rainfall, over three years (2009-2011) due to data access. Utilising advanced statistical techniques, including regression analysis, ANOVA, and GARCH modelling, the research evaluates the impact of both daily weather fluctuations and seasonal patterns on stock returns and volatility. The findings reveal no significant relationship between temperature and stock returns, aligning with some prior studies but contrasting with others conducted in different markets. Similarly, ANOVA results indicate no meaningful seasonal variations in stock returns, although descriptive statistics suggest higher returns during spring and summer. Notably, the GARCH model highlights periods where rainfall and humidity coincide with increased market volatility, although these effects are inconsistent. While direct links between and stock returns remain limited, the observed effects on volatility suggest potential implications for investors and policymakers. The research provides a foundation for further research, supporting comparative analysis with expanded datasets, additional weather variables and across markets.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Supervisors:	Name Email Hamill, David UNSPECIFIED
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences Q Science > QA Mathematics > Electronic computers. Computer science T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Electronic computers. Computer science H Social Sciences > Economics H Social Sciences > HG Finance > Investment > Stock Exchange
Divisions:	School of Computing > Master of Science in Data Analytics
Depositing User:	Ciara O'Brien
Date Deposited:	02 Sep 2025 15:51
Last Modified:	02 Sep 2025 15:51
URI:	https://norma.ncirl.ie/id/eprint/8723

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