Impact of Crude Oil on Indian Economy

Pareta, Ronit Kumar (2023) Impact of Crude Oil on Indian Economy. Masters thesis, Dublin, National College of Ireland.

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Abstract

Crude oil price fluctuations have far-reaching effects on emerging economies like India which imports over 80% of its oil requirements. Understanding this impact is vital for macroeconomic stability. Despite extensive global literature, India-specific quantitative evidence on crude price-economy linkages remains limited. This research addresses this gap focusing on major Indian macroeconomic indicators. This thesis investigates the impact of international crude prices on key Indian macroeconomic indicators using linear regression, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network models. The study collects extensive time series data and applies a model comparison approach, leveraging the strengths of different modelling techniques. Analysis of various important analyses provides new insights into transmission channels. Neural network model outperforms the other models with least value of mean squared error, mean absolute error, and root mean square error value. This thesis contributes significant India-focused empirical evidence, helping contextualize the macroeconomic effects of oil uncertainty. The insights can inform policy aimed at navigating oil price volatility and ensuring economic stability. The analysis focuses on macroeconomic indicators. Sectoral and external factors are excluded. Regular model updating is required to track evolving dynamics. In conclusion, this thesis enhances scholarly understanding of oil-economy linkages for India through rigorous quantitative analysis. The evidence holds relevance for policymakers and provides reference for future research.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Supervisors:	Name Email Makki, Ahmed UNSPECIFIED
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Indian GDP; Stock market; unemployment; crude oil volatility; machine learning models
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > Electronic computers. Computer science T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Electronic computers. Computer science Q Science > Q Science (General) > Self-organizing systems. Conscious automata > Machine learning H Social Sciences > Economics > Macroeconomics H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > Specific Industries > Oil Industry
Divisions:	School of Computing > Master of Science in Data Analytics
Depositing User:	Tamara Malone
Date Deposited:	28 Dec 2024 11:42
Last Modified:	28 Dec 2024 11:42
URI:	https://norma.ncirl.ie/id/eprint/7244

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