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A Comparative Analysis on the Trends of Crime in Dublin using Predictive Analytics: Technical Report

Caffrey, Brandon (2022) A Comparative Analysis on the Trends of Crime in Dublin using Predictive Analytics: Technical Report. Undergraduate thesis, Dublin, National College of Ireland.

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Dublin is rich in culture and history, but as any other large city, it is also afflicted with high crime rates. Crime rates, however, are widely expected to vary across its four districts (Fingal, Dublin City, South Dublin, and Dun Laoghaire – Rathdown). The purpose of this project is to analyse factors and trends that can lead to crimes being committed in each district of Dublin. These trends include the level of garda personnel, education attainment and income. Focusing on the four districts of Dublin, this project examines how these trends may affect the levels of crime in each district. Crime is measured by the total amount of offences committed in each district ranging from many different offences such as theft and burglary to harming the environment related offences and so on.

This project also uses predictive analytics in the form of time series forecasting to make a prediction on each of the trends stated above. Using the ARIMA model, we have made a prediction on the number of offences committed per region, the amount in second level education per region and the average amount of income in the whole of Dublin.

Many of the results found were expected such as the predictions, however there were some unexpected results when measuring whether the trends have a strong effect on the number of crimes committed. As a society, we naturally assume that the trends that I have previously mentioned will allow for a decrease in the levels of crime. However, this is not the case for some of the different districts of Dublin.

Item Type: Thesis (Undergraduate)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare > Criminology > Crimes and Offences
Q Science > QA Mathematics > Electronic computers. Computer science
T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Electronic computers. Computer science
Q Science > QA Mathematics > Computer software
T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Computer software
D History General and Old World > DA Great Britain > Ireland > Dublin
Divisions: School of Computing > Bachelor of Science (Honours) in Computing
Depositing User: Clara Chan
Date Deposited: 10 Aug 2022 16:43
Last Modified: 10 Aug 2022 16:43

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