Analytical Review of Cryptocurrency Dynamics in Geopolitical Conflicts: A Case Study of the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

Dureke, Ifeanyichukwu Michael (2024) Analytical Review of Cryptocurrency Dynamics in Geopolitical Conflicts: A Case Study of the Ukraine-Russia Conflict. Masters thesis, Dublin, National College of Ireland.

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Abstract

This study exploring the Effect of Geopolitical Tensions Especially Russia-Ukraine Conflict On Cryptocurrency Market had three specific objectives of the study are: Examine geopolitical tensions and systemic risk in cryptocurrencies bidirectionally; Analyse inflation within Russia & Ukraine by investigating whether this conflict generated a demand for cryptocurrencies due to being an alternative method to hedge against adverse currency movements; Analyse the impact of changes in stock market indices in Russia and Ukraine on cryptocurrency market volatility during the war. Using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and correlation analysis, it investigate how these selected cryptocurrencies interact with traditional financial assets as crude oil prices or stock market indices; Results suggest that the significant role of market returns to cryptocurrency return was also affected by geopolitical shocks and hence rendering them as stable hedging instruments in times of global events. In addition to that a significant positive average relation between inflation rates and cryptocurrency prices especially in Russia is observed underlining the hedging capability of cryptocurrencies against inflation. With this in mind, the results of the research indicate that future studies aiming to capture more comprehensively cryptocurrency dynamics within geopolitical conflicts clouds must have access to broader datasets and deploy models with a better description power. These results offer critical information for investors, policymakers and researchers in cryptocurrencies including global macroeconomic markets.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Supervisors:	Name Email Byrne, Brian UNSPECIFIED
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Geopolitical tensions; Russia-Ukraine conflict; Cryptocurrencies; Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM); Systematic risk; Inflation; Hedging; Market volatility
Subjects:	J Political Science > JZ International relations H Social Sciences > HG Finance > Money > Digital currency H Social Sciences > HG Finance > Fintech T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Fintech H Social Sciences > HG Finance > Investment > Stock Exchange
Divisions:	School of Computing > Master of Science in FinTech
Depositing User:	Ciara O'Brien
Date Deposited:	06 Aug 2025 11:50
Last Modified:	06 Aug 2025 11:50
URI:	https://norma.ncirl.ie/id/eprint/8441

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