Advancing Player Modelling in Rugby Union: An Evaluation of Path Analysis Techniques

Ó Muilleoir, Cian (2023) Advancing Player Modelling in Rugby Union: An Evaluation of Path Analysis Techniques. Masters thesis, Dublin, National College of Ireland.

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Abstract

Rugby union outcomes have traditionally been predicted using team-level metrics like past results and rankings, overlooking within-match dynamics. This research aimed to quantify the impact of player selection and cohesion on match outcomes using advanced player modelling. However, significant limitations emerged applying path analysis techniques to available rugby event data, stalling progress. The focus shifted to evaluating path analysis efficacy for rugby modelling. Results showed issues with indicator reliability, estimate reproducibility, and model complexity. Small sample diversity and theoretical validity constraints contributed to instability. While the cohesion research goals proved unattainable presently, illuminating path analysis limitations remains informative. This methodological investigation highlights considerations for future player-level modelling like ensuring indicator dependability, addressing multicollinearity, and exploring nonlinear modelling. Though falling short of its aims, by critiquing the path analysis approach applied to rugby, this work provides practical guidance to enable enhanced dynamic modelling and quantification of player factors influencing match outcomes.

Item Type:	Thesis (Masters)
Supervisors:	Name Email Basilio, Jorge UNSPECIFIED
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics Q Science > QA Mathematics > Electronic computers. Computer science T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Electronic computers. Computer science G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GV Recreation Leisure > Sports
Divisions:	School of Computing > Master of Science in Data Analytics
Depositing User:	Tamara Malone
Date Deposited:	28 Dec 2024 10:47
Last Modified:	28 Dec 2024 10:47
URI:	https://norma.ncirl.ie/id/eprint/7239

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