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Forecasting of Hospital Outpatient Waiting Lists in Ireland using Time-Series and Machine Learning

Srinath, Sonal (2022) Forecasting of Hospital Outpatient Waiting Lists in Ireland using Time-Series and Machine Learning. Masters thesis, Dublin, National College of Ireland.

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The Health Services Executives (HSE) endorses health and well-being throughout the country. It manages resources in a way that delivers the best health outcomes in Ireland. The Acute Hospitals Division works meticulously with the Hospital Groups to deliver the hospital services like Inpatient and Outpatient care throughout Ireland. This division not only improves the waiting time for the public hospitals, but also ensures quality, safety, and the financial operations of the Hospital Groups. This research project aims to deliver the resolution for one of the crucial matters that the HSE prioritizes - long patient waiting lists. This research focuses only on outpatient waiting lists. The key role that HSE is responsible for is to guarantee timely access for patients to receive treatment and care because currently, over 3.2 million patients wait for outpatient care and treatment. The National Treatment Purchase Fund (NTPF) works with the HSE and delivers the data for the outpatient services annually. The proposed framework combines time series analysis using seasonal ARIMA along with supervised ML algorithms like ANN, Random Forest, and Linear Regression to study the data from 2014-2021. Results are presented for the four models based on RMSE AND MAE. The random forest model outperformed the other models with an RMSE of 57.97. This research shows promise for seasonal ARIMA and random forest models to help the hospital administrators make appropriate changes to enhance the hospital systems.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > Electronic computers. Computer science
T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Electronic computers. Computer science
R Medicine > Healthcare Industry
Q Science > Q Science (General) > Self-organizing systems. Conscious automata > Machine learning
Divisions: School of Computing > Master of Science in Data Analytics
Depositing User: Tamara Malone
Date Deposited: 13 Mar 2023 13:46
Last Modified: 13 Mar 2023 13:46

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