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Impact of Road Surface Conditions on Motor Insurance Risk

Ravi, Aravind Kumar (2020) Impact of Road Surface Conditions on Motor Insurance Risk. Masters thesis, Dublin, National College of Ireland.

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Abstract

Dynamic shifts in the mobility industry with solutions like ride sharing, carpooling, micro hires and, an increase in driving automation and changing demographics of drivers are posing huge challenges towards the insurance industry. The pricing of insurance products is directly tied to the risk covered by the insurers, the disruption in the mobility industry calls for a rapid shift from traditional risk profiling methodologies which hugely depend on statistical demographic risk models. This study aims to define risk from an environment centric approach. Knowledge of historic collision and their severity and using a collection of sensors should help in predicting road collisions and its severity. In order to predict this at a commendable accuracy, it is important to understand in detail the influence of features like weather road condition, and vehicle conditions influence a road collision. This study aims to study such a feature for its impact on road collisions: Road surface resistance. The work involved studying two distinct datasets from the Road Safety Authority of Ireland and Transport Infrastructure Ireland on road surface conditions for its usability in a prediction task for the actuarial application in motor insurance industry. Results and conclusions have been presented based on building a Naïve Bayes classifier with the severity of road collision as an independent variable and surface condition as the sole predictor. The critical constraints in using the features for a prediction task are also discussed.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > Electronic computers. Computer science
T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Electronic computers. Computer science

Q Science > QA Mathematics > Computer software
T Technology > T Technology (General) > Information Technology > Computer software

H Social Sciences > HG Finance > Insurance
Divisions: School of Computing > Master of Science in FinTech
Depositing User: Dan English
Date Deposited: 29 Jan 2021 17:31
Last Modified: 29 Jan 2021 17:31
URI: http://norma.ncirl.ie/id/eprint/4577

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